Statistical Demography

Adrian Raftery (Professeur à l’Univ. de Washington, Seattle), lauréat de la Chaire d'excellence de la FSMP en 2020, donnera un cours intitulé Statistical Demography les mardis 28 septembre, 5, 12 et 19 octobre 2021 de 9h à 16h30 en Salle du Conseil de l'Université de Paris (Paris-Descartes), 45 rue des Saints-Pères, Paris 6^e. Le cours sera dispensé en anglais. Il se tiendra en présentiel uniquement (the course will be given in person).

INSCRIPTION

Pour assister au cours, il faut impérativement s'inscrire via le formulaire (cliquez ici).

PLANNING DES JOURNÉES DE COURS

9:00-10:15 Séance 1

10:15-10:45 Pause café

10:45-12:00 Séance 2

12:00-13:30 Déjeuner

13:30-14:45 Séance 3

14:45-15:15 Pause café

15:15-16:30 Séance 4

RÉSUMÉ

Demography aims to estimate and forecast population, fertility, mortality and migration. This is important for government policy-making, private sector planning, and research in the health and social sciences, and also critical for climate science and global health. It has traditionally been done using deterministic mathematical methods, but these ignore uncertainty and measurement error. In the past decade, modern statistical methods were developed for this by our group at the University of Washington, and these were recently adopted by the United Nations for their official population forecasts for all countries. Statistical demography is expanding rapidly, and this course will teach theory and practice of methods and models of the field, with a focus on current and potential future research.

The topics will be:

1. Review of basic mathematical demographic methods.

2. Modeling age-specific rates, including model schedules and Lee-Carter method.

3. Statistical modeling and projection of fertility, mortality, migration and population.

4. Reconstructing population and vital rates from imperfect data.